Tinubu, Obi, & AtikuWith Tinubu under scrutiny, North weighs options between Jonathan, Atiku, Obi, and Amaechi in high-stakes presidential race
The 2027 presidential election is shaping up to be one of Nigeria’s most complex and decisive contests, as the North finds itself at a political crossroads. With pressure mounting to uphold the unwritten North-South power rotation principle, northern political powerbrokers are torn between loyalty to incumbent President Bola Tinubu and a growing push for a one-term Southern candidate.
At the heart of the dilemma is the choice between five top contenders: Tinubu, former President Goodluck Jonathan, ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi, and former Rivers State Governor Rotimi Amaechi. While northern politicians like Atiku and Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim are eyeing the seat, many stakeholders argue that a northern successor to Tinubu in 2027 would break the rotation accord and risk destabilizing the country.
To navigate this, several northern leaders are considering supporting a Southern candidate, preferably one who will agree to serve only one term and step aside in 2031 to return power to the North. This thinking is fueling momentum behind Jonathan and Tinubu, both of whom are constitutionally limited to a single term, as well as Obi and Amaechi, who have pledged to run for only one term if elected.
Former President Jonathan is emerging as an increasingly attractive option for northern elites seeking a stable transition of power. Despite legal questions surrounding his eligibility due to constitutional limits, Jonathan’s peaceful concession after the 2015 election, his cordial post-office relationship with former President Buhari, and the perceived stability during his administration have earned him renewed respect. Many top figures within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are now backing the “Bring Back Jonathan” movement, believing he represents the best chance to unseat Tinubu.
Obi, who garnered over six million votes and won 11 states, including the Federal Capital Territory, in 2023, continues to resonate with a significant portion of the electorate. Despite his modest political structure, his post-election outreach and philanthropic engagements have kept him in national conversations. While still affiliated with the Labour Party, Obi is also part of a broader coalition under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) with Atiku, Nasir El-Rufai, Aminu Tambuwal, and Amaechi, all of whom have agreed to support whoever emerges as the coalition’s consensus candidate.
Amaechi, who placed second to Tinubu in the APC primaries, has his support base in the North thanks to major infrastructure projects he executed as Minister of Transportation. His work on the Nigeria-Niger Republic railway and the transport university in Daura has not gone unnoticed. Like Obi, Amaechi has publicly pledged to serve only one term if elected.
Meanwhile, Atiku Abubakar remains a formidable figure in the North and continues to eye the presidency despite multiple failed attempts since 1993. Recently defecting to the ADC, Atiku has also pledged to serve just one term, hoping to assuage concerns over power rotation. However, his ability to unify the North and secure meaningful Southern support remains uncertain after losing two northern zones to Tinubu in 2023.
President Tinubu’s fate in the North is increasingly precarious. Despite receiving over five million northern votes in 2023, largely from the North-West, his administration is under fire for alleged marginalisation in appointments, infrastructure projects, and economic relief. Northern critics argue that the president’s performance falls short of expectations, given the region’s overwhelming support. Prominent figures such as Atiku, El-Rufai, Tambuwal, and Bala Mohammed have openly accused Tinubu of sidelining the North and worsening economic conditions.
In response, Tinubu’s allies, including northern governors, ministers, and the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume, have mounted a defense of his record, claiming that the president’s achievements in the North surpass those of his predecessor. A recent government outreach in Kaduna aimed to ease tensions, with top officials listing accomplishments and pledging improved northern inclusion.
Still, critics argue that the president’s actions in the next 460 days, before the February 20, 2027, election, will determine whether he retains northern support or faces a coordinated challenge from within the region. Tinubu is also exploring a possible alliance with former Kano Governor Musa Kwankwaso, whose political base could prove crucial in the North-West
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